House prices in some pockets of the country are rising – and some areas where properties are affordable are now poised to break the six-figure ceiling.
Most of the markets that have the potential to become million dollar markets are in the West and Midwest and, surprisingly, they are in close proximity to the largest and most expensive metros.
To determine where these markets are, Realtor.com® economists examined sales price growth in America’s 100 largest metros between 2014 and 2019 (a five-year stretch that cuts through difficult anomalies like recessions and pandemics). The team then applied the same growth trajectory from 2023 to 2028 to project where house prices will be in five years and then to 2033 to estimate where prices will go in the next 10 years.
For example, if you bought a home in Boise City, ID, in 2023, it would typically cost an average of $464,578. However, with a five-year price growth rate of 58.2%, homes here are projected to be worth $735,026 in 2028. By 2023, that estimate rises even further to $1,162,910.
What do the million dollar futures markets have in common?
So what does a few modest markets advise in the million dollar club? One trend is that they are often located near other already expensive markets.
For example, Stockton, CA, is two hours inland from San Francisco. Although the 2023 median listing price for homes in Stockton is $579,292, by 2033 that number is projected to rise to $1,446,731.
“As prices rise and prices move out of the San Francisco Bay Area, people will move further into the Valley,” says Corcoran Icon Properties global real estate advisor Nicole Brown. “Stockton is a great place positioned between the San Francisco and Sacramento metros. People can commute to either metro for their jobs.”
The West and Midwest dominate this list, while the Sun Belt region has far more home acreage to build on.
“Even though the Sun Belt is growing rapidly, there is still plenty of land and affordable housing,” says Yancy Forsythe, owner of Missouri Valley Homes in Carrollton, MO. “That helps keep house prices down at the moment. The availability of land makes it easier to build new houses, which keeps prices from going up too much.”
High buyer demand is also a factor.
“Various popular markets like Boise have seen significant price increases in recent years as buyer demand puts pressure on inventory, leading to price increases and competition,” says Realtor.com economist Hannah Jones. “If these trends continue, prices could exceed $1 million in the next decade in some markets that are currently relatively affordable.”
Of course, no one can promise that this is where the markets will end – many forces can change this trajectory.
“If the local economy shifts, demand may drop and prices may not keep up with recent increases,” says Jones. “On the supply side, homebuilding could pick up, taking some of the pressure off inventory, which would allow for slower price growth.”
Below are the top 10 markets headed for the million dollar mark and their growth projections.
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 58.2%
Average selling price 2023: $464,578
2028 price projection: $735,026
Price projection 2033: $1,162,910
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 46.9%
Average selling price 2023: $493,414
2028 price projection: $724,614
Price projection 2033: $1,064,147
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 44.9%
Average selling price 2023: $501,245
2028 price projection: $726,105
Price projection 2033: $1,051,838
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 49.8%
Average selling price 2023: $454,673
2028 price projection: $680,980
Price projection 2033: $1,019,929
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 58.0%
Average selling price 2023: $579,292
2028 price projection: $915,467
Price projection 2033: $1,446,731
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 53.8%
Average selling price 2023: $547,966
2028 price projection: $842,932
Price projection 2033: $1,296,676
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 40.7%
Average selling price 2023: $557,522
2028 price projection: $784,301
Price projection 2033: $1,103,325
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 26.2%
Average selling price 2023: $622,902
2028 price projection: $786,000
Price projection 2033: $991,804
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 29.4%
Average selling price 2023: $683,086
2028 price projection: $883,931
Price projection 2033: $1,143,830
5-year price growth 2014-2019: 46.3%
Average selling price 2023: $694,351
2028 price projection: $1,015,739
Price projection 2033: $1,485,885
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